Ferrous metals industry: four mainline looking for investment opportunities

Report Summary: Key events and macroeconomic data: Bernanke said that still need highly accommodative monetary policy. He believes that the unemployment rate fell to 6.5 percent rate hike will not automatically lead to the need to raise interest rates until after a period of time. Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting minutes showed that most officials are expected to end later this year or even later purchase debt. ECB Executive Committee Asmussen EBRD interest guidelines that more than 12 months. U.S. July University of Michigan consumer confidence index is less than expected, the U.S. producer price index in June, higher than expected in May wholesale inventories fell recorded the largest since September 2011. European inflation below 2%, in line with market expectations. Eurozone May industrial output fell, worse than expected. UK May industrial, manufacturing output fell surpassed expectations. China's CPI rose 2.7%, or exceeding market expectations; import and export data significantly below market expectations. The United States and Germany bond yields fall, the deficit country still go up. The dollar index weakened. Oil prices.
Price Review: Base metals prices. Federal Reserve Tungsten eletrode meeting minutes and dovish Bernanke's speech in full, the market fears eased, the dollar index weakened the strong performance of China's stock market, Chinese economic data offset the negative impact of the poor. LMEX index gained 3.22%, copper and other major metals stocks. Gold prices rebounded. In Fed officials to appease, the market share of U.S. debt policy is expected to ease the exit, while the domestic CPI rose 2.7% over market expectations, the price of gold rose $ 65. Small metal prices: domestic tungsten concentrate prices have been transmitted to the APT and other intermediate products of cobalt prices fell slightly. Price of antimony, molybdenum price, the price of titanium, manganese prices fell. Rare earth prices continue to rebound, praseodymium, dysprosium and other prices.
Colored sector rose 2.67 percent, outperforming the broader market (2.18%). Due to the rare earths, magnetic and metal support strong performance in the new materials sector, aluminum and gold plate weaker industries.
Price Outlook and strategy point of view. The face of domestic economic growth hub down, the economic structure is undergoing transformation, market remained tight liquidity situation, while approaching resumption of the IPO, the stock market there is pressure, but the policy is expected to have a strong, we believe that the overall market rebound trend still continues in the short term, but long-term trend is still uncertain. Base metals demand short-term backwardation, needs improvement support, but by the tight liquidity, the dollar index rose, and China's economic growth in the value of long-term factors such as pressing down. Downward trend in the price of gold is not over, the industry is no longer the integrity of the opportunity, you need to adjust the economic structure in the direction from the starting, looking for investment opportunities: First, pay attention to automobile exhaust and vehicle dismantling and recycling, metal recycling, desalination and other fields and speed the development of new energy vehicles to benefit companies such as Dongjiang Environmental, Green America, Hailiang shares, Tian Qi Li industry. Second, looking to improve supply and demand, prices of small metal. Rare earth, permanent magnet industry benefited from the company Xiamen Tungsten and tungsten prices and so on. Third, the continued expansion of light alloy materials. Customer focus, stable demand, processing deepening Liyuan Aluminum. Fourth, the rare earth industry by the cost of support, and industry regulation, the integration of compressed supply forecasts, prices rise, the recent strength will be presented. Meanwhile, to postpone implementation of the ban Congolese cobalt, copper export policy to the end.
Risk Warning: worsening European debt crisis, the domestic economic downturn, demand for metals recovery is slow or supply growth exceeded expectations, etc., the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations in case of difficulties, QE abort timing advance.